Evidence on Article 6

Peer-reviewed research, independent analysis, and Observatory commentary on the quality and outcomes of Article 6.2 and 6.4 activities.

2025

Are Carbon Offsets Fixable?

Romm, J.; Lezak, S.; Alshamsi, A. · Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Examines carbon-market practices and their implications for the credibility, governance and climate impact of carbon credits.

AdditionalityArticle 6.2Baseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionNature-Based Project(s)PACMPermanenceReductionsRemovals
2025

Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?

Calel, R.; Colmer, J.; Dechezleprêtre, A.; Glachant, M. · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Econometric evaluation of CDM wind projects in India finds little evidence that crediting changed investment decisions.

PermanenceBaseline and Quantification
2025

Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?

Raphael, C.; Colmer, J.; Dechezleprêtre, A.; Glachant, M. · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Econometric evaluation of CDM wind projects in India finds little evidence that crediting changed investment decisions.

Technological Based Project(s)AdditionalityReductions
2025

Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting

Tang, Y.; Yang, C.; Wu, H.; Xu, Z.; Tan, L.; Tu, W.; Li, Z.; Wang, Z.; Guo, K.; Xiong, S.; Chen, S.; Zhang, B.; Tian, J.; Hu, Y.; Chen, Z.; Chase, J.M.; Li, Q. · Science

Examines risks of over-crediting in carbon markets, with attention to the methods and assumptions used to quantify claimed mitigation.

AdditionalityBaseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionNature-Based Project(s)Reductions
2024

Pervasive over-crediting from cookstove offset methodologies

Gill-Wiehl, A.; Kammen, D.M.; Haya, B.K. · UC Berkeley Carbon Trading Project

Assesses cookstove crediting methodologies and identifies systematic risks of over-crediting due to assumptions about baseline fuel use and stove adoption.

Baseline and QuantificationArticle 6.2OtherPACMReductions
2024

Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects

Probst, B.S.; Toetzke, M.; Kontoleon, A.; Anadón, L.D.; Minx, J.C.; Haya, B.K.; Schneider, L.; Trotter, P.A.; West, T.A.P.; Gill-Wiehl, A.; Hoffmann, V.H. · Nature

Meta-analysis across cookstove, forestry, wind and HFC-23 projects finds only a small fraction of issued credits correspond to real emission reductions.

Baseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionInvestigativeNature-Based Project(s)Reductions
2019

Additionality revisited: guarding the integrity of market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement

Michaelowa, A., Hermwille, L., Obergassel, W., & Butzengeiger, S. · Climate Policy

We first review generic definitions of additionality and current approaches for testing of additionality before discussing under which conditions additionality testing of specific activities or policies is still necessary under the new context of the Paris Agreement, that is, in order to prevent increases of global emissions.

PACMBaseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionLocal Community/Indigenous Peoples
2026

Analysis of selected Blue Carbon projects in the voluntary carbon market Opportunities and risks of current carbon crediting methodologies

Jennerjahn, T.; Fallasch, F.; Siemons, A.; Wissner, N.; Lauer, S.; Reise, J.; Liste, V.; Janas, L. · Öko-Institut e.V.

Examines carbon-market practices and their implications for the credibility, governance and climate impact of carbon credits.

AdditionalityBaseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionInvestigativeLeakagePermanenceReductionsSustainable Development
2026

CAT Article 6 evaluations

Climate Action Tracker

Analyses Article 6 carbon-market governance and implementation, highlighting implications for environmental integrity, transparency and climate ambition.

Article 6.2Baseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionInvestigativeNational FrameworksAdditionalityPermanenceReductionsSustainable DevelopmentLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesNature-Based Project(s)
2026

CMW’s input on the Article 6.4 sustainable development tool

Mulder, I. · Carbon Market Watch

Analyses Article 6 carbon-market governance and implementation, highlighting implications for environmental integrity, transparency and climate ambition.

PACMSustainable DevelopmentLocal Community/Indigenous Peoples
2026

How Article 6 could undermine climate ambition

De Grandpré, J.; Senne, J. · NewClimate Institute

Analyses Article 6 carbon-market governance and implementation, highlighting implications for environmental integrity, transparency and climate ambition.

Article 6.2National FrameworksSustainable DevelopmentClimate AmbitionOtherReductionsLocal Community/Indigenous Peoples
2026

How can the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism Deliver Upscaled Crediting: Existing experiences and options for future implementation

Hoch,S., Michaelowa, A., Sah, C., Waweru, P., Murugesan, R., Brescia,D., Veen, P., Cuadrat, S. · Perspectives Climate

This report identifies options for upscaled crediting in international carbon markets going byeond specific projects, assesses experiences with such crediting in the past and provides recommendations for the PACM regulators to enable rapid upscaling if significant demand for PACM credits materialises.

Article 6.2ReductionsRemovalsNational FrameworksClimate Ambition
2025

Article 6 in Focus: outcomes from COP30

Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment · University of Oxford

Unpacks COP30 outcomes across 6.2 cooperative approaches, the PACM under 6.4, and non-market approaches under 6.8.

Article 6.2PACM
2025

Auditors can’t save carbon offsets

Giles, C.; Coglianese, C. · Science

Evaluates the role and limitations of third-party auditing in ensuring credible carbon-credit claims.

OtherClimate Ambition
2025

By the book: How effective are Article 6 carbon market rules?

Dossi, F. · Carbon Market Watch

Analyses Article 6 carbon-market governance and implementation, highlighting implications for environmental integrity, transparency and climate ambition.

Article 6.2PACMAdditionalityBaseline and QuantificationPermanenceClimate AmbitionLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesInvestigativeAdaptation
2025

COP30: Attempts to dilute inadequate carbon market rules thwarted

Carbon Market Watch

Contrasts the public "high quality markets" framing with efforts inside negotiating rooms to weaken Article 6 rules.

Nature-Based Project(s)PACMLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesArticle 6.2Climate AmbitionReductionsSustainable Development
2025

EJF position on Article 6 and regulated carbon markets

Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF)

Analyses Article 6 carbon-market governance and implementation, highlighting implications for environmental integrity, transparency and climate ambition.

AdditionalityArticle 6.2Baseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionAdaptationLeakageLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesNature-Based Project(s)RemovalsReductionsPermanencePACMSustainable Development
2025

Exposing the human rights and wrongs of carbon market projects

Diab, K. · Carbon Market Watch

Explores social safeguards, community rights and accountability challenges associated with carbon-market activities.

ReductionsNature-Based Project(s)InvestigativeLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesClimate AmbitionAdditionality
2025

Oxford Principles for Responsible Engagement with Article 6

Johnstone, I.; Schneider, L.; Michaelowa, A.; de Grandpré, J.; Kuci, S.; Ahonen, H.; Probst, B.S.; Lezak, S.; Hale, T.; La Hoz Theuer, S.; Omukuti, J.; Reséndiz, J.L.; Fankhauser, S.; Abebe, S.K.; Hepburn, C. · NewClimate Institute, University of Oxford, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment

Sets out three principles for responsible Article 6 engagement: Paris-aligned use of mitigation outcomes, environmental and social integrity, and robust accounting and transparency.

Article 6.2AdditionalityBaseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesPermanencePACMNational FrameworksSustainable DevelopmentReductionsRemovals
2025

Recommendations to the Government of Zambia

Mulder, I. · Carbon Market Watch

Provides analysis of climate-policy and carbon-market governance issues relevant to responsible Article 6 engagement.

Article 6.2Baseline and QuantificationClimate AmbitionNational FrameworksLocal Community/Indigenous PeoplesPermanenceReductionsPACMSustainable Development
2025

UN carbon market drops the ball on permanence

Mulder, I. · Carbon Market Watch

Assesses how carbon crediting rules address non-permanence and reversal risks, including safeguards for the durability of credited mitigation.

InvestigativePACMPermanenceReductionsNature-Based Project(s)
2025

UN carbon trading confusion damps demand

Bryan, K. · Financial Times

Examines carbon-market practices and their implications for the credibility, governance and climate impact of carbon credits.

Article 6.2Baseline and QuantificationPermanenceReductionsRemovals
2024

Integrity risks in carbon markets in Mozambique

Camacho, G. · Transparency International

Examines carbon-market practices and their implications for the credibility, governance and climate impact of carbon credits.

Local Community/Indigenous PeoplesNational FrameworksNature-Based Project(s)ReductionsSustainable Development
2024

Switzerland in the dense fog of carbon offsetting

Berner, D. · Alliance Sud

This study investigates one of the first Article 6.2 partnerships between Switzerland and Ghana.

Article 6.2Sustainable DevelopmentReductionsTechnological Based Project(s)Baseline and QuantificationInvestigative
2023

Corruption risks in land based solutions to climate change

Maslen, C. · Transparency International

Provides analysis of climate-policy and carbon-market governance issues relevant to responsible Article 6 engagement.

Local Community/Indigenous PeoplesNational FrameworksNature-Based Project(s)
2016

How additional is the Clean Development Mechanism?

Cames, M.; Harthan, R. O.; Füssler, J.; et al. · Öko-Institut, for DG CLIMA

The study that set the terms of the additionality debate: 85% of assessed CDM projects had a low likelihood of being additional.

Technological Based Project(s)Nature-Based Project(s)
2026

Article 6 Updates: April 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: August 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: February 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s second monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

​​Article 6 Updates: January 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s first monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: July 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: June 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: March 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s third monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: May 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: October 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update
2026

Article 6 Updates: September 2026

Article 6 Observatory

Welcome to the Article 6 Observatory’s monthly update reviewing the latest developments from around the world related to Article 6.

Monthly Update